Weather forecast: Afternoon storm chances increase midday

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It will strengthen very slowly over the next 48 to 72 hours as it tracks westward with time, but this will likely remain a "fish storm" with no impact to land.

Models - including the operational run (and some ensemble members) of the European - show it developing into a weak low and moving northwesterly early to mid next week. Added cloud cover and early rain will keep highs in the upper 80s in the Orlando area.

Which means a continuing pattern of clear mornings, stormy afternoons, and rain dissipating late in the evening at least through the weekend. The rain is expected to start on Sunday and stretch into Tuesday.

Finally, while the tropical wave now over the Lesser Antilles is showing some increase in shower and thundershower activity, immediate tropical development is extremely unlikely due to high levels of wind shear. Most wave models are based on GFS winds, so most long range surf forecasts will reflect a hurricane strength storm.

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The forecast now shows a 60-70 percent chance of rain area-wide, trending down to 50 percent for the rest of the week.

The National Hurricane Center is now predicting a 10 percent chance that this tropical wave develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm as it moves away from Tampa Bay toward the central Gulf Coast. This second tropical wave - regardless of development - has the potential to bring more rain to the area by Thursday. Some of the storms could become strong with gusty winds and frequent lightning. Moisture from the tropical wave south of Florida will increase beginning tomorrow afternoon.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents will continue this weekend as breakers/surf build into the 2-3 ft range as onshore flow continues.

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