IMF cuts global growth forecast to 3.7% as risks rise

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The fund also slightly lowered its forecast for Japan's economy to 1.1% growth in 2018, down 0.1 of a percentage point from an April estimate, but maintained a prediction for a 0.9% Japanese expansion in 2019. "While Nigeria will grow from 1.9 per cent in 2018 to 2.3 percent in 2019, South Africa and Angola are projected to move from 0.8 to 1.4 and -0.1 to 3.1 per cents respectively".

Besides, the Azerbaijani government expects the growth of the country's GDP at the level of 2 percent for this year, 3.19 percent for 2019, and 3.5 percent for 2020.

In a report released ahead of the IMF's annual conference, this year held on the Indonesian island of Bali, the fund said that the UK's "pace of fiscal consolidation can be eased if risks materialize and growth slows sharply".

The revised estimates includes a worsening outlook for developing economies this year and next compared to the July report, as well as downgrades for the United States and China in 2019.

US President Donald Trump recently sanctioned tariffs on an additional Dollars 200 billion worth of Chinese goods, nearly 15 per cent of China's total exports to the US.

After 18 months consecutive drop in the country's inflation rate from about 15.98 per cent in 2016, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data for August 2018 showed a marginal increase from about 11.14 per cent in July to the current 11.23 per cent. These were reduced by 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points for this year and next, partly as a result of higher interest rates making these nations' debts more costly to service.

"US growth will decline once parts of its fiscal stimulus go into reverse", Mr Obstfeld said in a statement.

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The report said: "In the United Kingdom, where the output gap is closed and unemployment is low, a modest tightening of monetary policy may be warranted, although at a time of heightened uncertainty, monetary policy should remain flexible in response to changing conditions associated with the Brexit negotiations".

This would be in keeping with a fall in global GDP growth, which the International Monetary Fund has predicted to fall from 2& to 1.8% in 2019. "These efforts should be supported by further reductions in subsidies and enhanced compliance with the Goods and Services Tax", the International Monetary Fund report said.

"Not only have some downside risks that the last WEO identified been realized, the likelihood of further negative shocks to our growth forecast has risen".

He contended that China had "already retaliated" against his tariff increases.

China's growth is still expected to be more than 6% next year, but the IMF's chief economist Maurice Obstfeld warned Beijing to concentrate on quality and sustainability of growth, not quantity of growth.

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